Why Tesla, Lucid, and Rivian Stocks All Just Popped

What happened

EV stocks look as if they’re going to finish the week strong this Friday, as shares of Tesla ( TSLA 2.85% ), Lucid Motors ( LCID 3.37% ), and Rivian Automotive ( RIVN 5.41% ) are all coasting higher in late-morning trading.

As of 10:55 a.m. EDT, Tesla stock is up a respectable 2.2%, Lucid is gaining 3.4%, and Rivian is racing ahead with a 3.8% gain.

3 race cars circling a track.

Image source: Getty Images.

So what

Two things are surprising about the above. First, the order in which these three stocks are gaining.

In a note out last night describing the state of the electric car market in the U.S., EV specialist Electrek pointed out that electric cars in America are still very much Tesla’s market to lose. Surveying market shares across the country, Electrek notes that “Tesla still dominates US electric car market, and it’s not even close,” with fully 70% electric cars sold in the country bearing the Tesla badge.

The runner-up in this race, by the way, isn’t either Lucid or Rivian, both of which are barely out of the starting gate. Instead, it’s Nissan, with an 8.5% market share, followed closely by General Motors’ Chevrolet brand at 7.2% and Ford at a distant fourth with just 2.3% of electric cars sold.

The second surprising thing is that it’s not entirely clear why Lucid and Rivian stocks are going up at all. As Electrek notes, EVs still represent just a tiny percentage of new car registrations in the U.S. While it’s substantial in certain states — 6% in Texas for example, nearly 8% in Florida, and a solid 35.3% in California — in most other states it barely registers. Just 0.3% of new car registrations are for electrics in New Hampshire, for example. The number is just 0.2% in Nebraska — one car in 500. In Wyoming and both Dakotas, the number also rounds down to 0%.

And again, most of those registrations are for Teslas. “All other automakers have a lot of catching up to do,” comments Electrek.

Now what

All that being said, Electrek does admit that “Tesla’s hold on the market [is expected to] erode as more EV options hit and help grow the US market.” Presumably, it’s this hope that is moving EV stocks higher today because — assuming that thesis plays out — over time we’ll see Tesla’s market share shrink (even as its total sales grow) while the market shares of its rivals, and the percentage of new car registrations for EVs, rise.

It just isn’t happening yet. And until it does, it’s going to remain hard for investors to figure out who will ultimately be the other automotive stock winners in this EV race.

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium advisory service. We’re motley! Questioning an investing thesis – even one of our own – helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer.

Katherine E. Ackerman

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